Modeling the emergence of riots: A geosimulation approach

Article history: Received 2 August 2015 Received in revised form 17 September 2016 Accepted 17 September 2016 Available online xxxx Immediately after the 2007 Kenyan election results were announced, the country erupted in protest. Riots were particularly severe in Kibera, an informal settlement locatedwithin the nation's capital, Nairobi. Through the lens of geosimulation, an agent-based model is integrated with social network analysis and geographic information systems to explore how the environment and local interactions underlying Kibera, combined with an external trigger, such as a rumor, led to the emergence of riots. We ground our model on empirical data of Kibera's geospatial landscape, heterogeneous population, and daily activities of its residents. In order to effectively construct a model of riots, however, we must have an understanding of human behavior, especially that related to an individual's need for identity and the role rumors play on a person's decision to riot. This provided the foundation to develop the agents' cognitive model, which created a feedback system between the agents' activities in physical space and interactions in social space. Results showed that youth are more susceptible to rioting. Systematically increasing education and employment opportunities, however, did not have simple linear effects on rioting, or even on quality of life with respect to income and activities. The situation is more complex. By linking agent-based modeling, social network analysis, and geographic information systemswe were able to develop a cognitive framework for the agents, better represent human behavior by modeling the interactions that occur over both physical and social space, and capture thenonlinear, reinforcing nature of the emergence anddissolution of riots. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.